Monthly Market Summary April 2025

From the Indonesian market landscape, GDP growth weakened to 4.87% Year on Year in Q12025, lower than the data of 5.02% in Q4 2024. Inflation was recorded slightly Higher in April 2025, to 1.9% y-o-y in April from 1% in March. In terms of the progress of the State Budget (APBN 2025), during the first 3 months of 2025, our APBN recorded a deficit of IDR104.2 trillion (-0.4% of GDP) . With controlled spending realization, we see that Indonesia's fiscal position still appears under control. Overall, our macroeconomic conditions are still quite constructive, even though the challenge is very difficult to grow above 5% this year amidst challenges, namely the potential for an economic slowdown and also world trade. From the bond market, the valuation of Indonesian bonds denominated in IDR remains attractive with a real yield of 4.92%, above the 5-year historical average of 4.08%. 

From the Indonesian stock market, the stock market reopened after the long Eid al-Fitr holiday last April, and the JCI plunged by 7.9% which resulted in a temporary suspension of transactions. The turmoil eased slightly with the 90-day pause on Trump's tariff policy, led to the recovery of JCI until the end of April. The OJK issued regulations regarding the buyback policy that can be carried out by issuers on the Indonesian stock exchange. In the future, we see the risk of this Trump tariff still existing, especially when the 90-day pause is over. In addition, we are aware of the risk of a decline in world economic growth in line with the decline in China's economic growth and the depreciation of the Chinese Yuan. 

Watch more in the following Monthly Market Summary for April 2025.